GoogleTV generated buzz at CES this year, which should not be surprising given the market clout of Google and the rework needed to the tarnished image of GoogleTV.  Most of us will agree that GoogleTV has failed to perform.  Personally, with GoogleTV2.0 upgrades to my Logitech Revue, all of the personal and system settings were erased during the upgrade.  How can something like that not be addressed in a system upgrade, especially given the black eye GoogleTV already has?  Despite some major brands announcing GoogleTV initiatives (see footnotes at the end of the article), skepticism prevails on multiple fronts about GoogleTV’s ability to make its mark , rosy predictions from Google notwithstanding.

However, another scenario could play out to turn the tide on GoogleTV.  This scenario has more to do with what Apple, its arch rival in some market segments, does than what Google does.

The Connected TV market is highly fragmented.  Most TV manufacturers have built their own Connected TV platform and storefronts.  This is to everyone’s detriment, and some have even proposed an idealistic but impractical approach for the television manufacturers to create a standard for Connected TVs.  In other words, there is no unifying factor to this fragmentation of Connected TV platforms.  While some of the major television manufacturers have announced plans to support GoogleTV, these television manufacturers are also pursuing their own Connected TV and applications platforms, in some cases based on Android, thereby making Google TV seem more of a hedge than a committed strategy for them.

Ironically, Apple’s next move in the television space may turn GoogleTV into the unifying force for Connected TVs, if indeed Apple does something as disruptive for televisions as it did for smart phones.  The smart phone market went from a few competing platforms to an outright platform war. In such platform wars, there is typically room for only two to battle it out.  What’s happening with PalmOS (RIP), Blackberry, or Symbian (RIP) in the context of iPhone and Android is evidence of this.

Should  Apple create an AppleTV to the exclusion of traditional television set manufacturers (as it did for the smart phone), the best recourse for existing television manufacturers would be to rally behind GoogleTV as the logical contender to Apple’s forced disruption of the television market.  However, if AppleTV includes the traditional television set manufacturers, this will most certainly be the final nail in the coffin of GoogleTV.

Steve Jobs is claimed to have said that the television set market was not attractive because of the slow upgrade cycles relative to mobile phones, for example.  Could it be that his ‘cracking’ the television market had partly to do with a change in Apple’s philosophy of creating a licensable software platform rather than a device?  With $160 billion at stake just in the US for television services without counting Internet advertising and services revenue, the business of television is far more lucrative on the services (and advertising) side than the device side.  Should Apple pursue this prong – and thereby enable Apple services on third party devices, while letting the device manufacturers create the presence of AppleTV devices it will certainly eliminate GoogleTV from the equation.  Apple’s ability to disrupt the market while also creating new opportunities for Connected TV devices through the strength of its brand and its services ecosystem would be ignored by television manufacturers at their own peril.  However, should Apple decide to build a closed platform as it is historically inclined to do, it will give GoogleTV a shot in the arm.

This may be yet another reason to tingle with anticipation on what Apple has in store with the next version of Apple TV.

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